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BMl raises2026 coking coal price forecast to $190/mt on strong India and Chinaimport demand -Forging Exhibition-2026 China(Guangzhou)International Forging Industry Exhibition
1/13/2026 锻造展-forging expo-forging exhibition--forging event |
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Fitch Solutions'' BMil Country Risk and Industry Research unit has raised its 2026 coking. coal price forecast to$190/mt, up from a previous estimate of $180/mt, citing expectations of sustained import demand from India
and China, according to media reports.
China''s production decline supports seaborneprices
While BMl maintains a cautious stance on China''s steelsector, with crude steel output projected to fall by fourpercent to 935 million mt in 2026, it expects a much sharper contraction in domestic coking coal supply.
China''s coking coal production is forecast to decline byeight percent to 454 million mt in 2026, a drop that isexpected to provide underlying support to seaborneprices. However, BMl warned that upside potential maybe capped by strong exports from land-based suppliers such as Mongolia and Russia.
India drives import growth amid domestic shortfall
In India, BMl highlighted robust steel output growth alongside weakening domestic coking coal supply.According to data from the World Steel Association, India''s crude steel production rose by 10 percent year onyear to 136 million mt in the January-October 2025 period.
Over the same period, India''s coking coal production fell by 10 percent to26.8 million mt,with output at BharatCoking Coal declining 17 percent to 17.6 million mt.
To compensate for this gap, India increased imports sharply. BMll estimates that coking coal imports rose by 8.6percent year on year to 50 million mt in the January-October 2025 period.
Long-term outlook unchanged despite near-term upgrade
Despite the upward revision for 2026, BMil has lefft its longer-term price assumptions unchanged, forecasting
average coking coal prices of $184/mt in2028 and $180/mt in 2029.These projections reflect expectations that India''s rapidly expanding steelmaking capacity will structurallyincrease import demand. Over the 2025-2034 period, BMl expects India to overtake China as the world''s largestimporter of coking coal.
India''s Mission Coking Coal faces structural constraints
BMil noted that, since the launch of India''s "Mission Coking Coar" initiative in August 2021, which aims to raisedomestic output to140 million mt by 2030, production has increased steadily. However,the agency cautionedthat sustaining this growth will be challenging, as most of India''s coal reserves are low-grade and unsuitable forsteelmaking.
As a result,India is expected to remain heavily dependent on seaborne supplies. India''s steel secretary hasindicated that coking coal imports could rise to160 milion mt by 2030,compared with around 58 milion mtcurrently.
Upside and downside risks to price forecast
BMil identified both downside and upside risks to its outlook. On the downside, a sharp economic slowdown indeveloped markets could weaken manufacturing, construction and steel demand, weighing on coking. coalconsumption and prices, particularly if supply growth leads to inventory accumulation.
On the upside, a rebound in China''s construction sector and stronger steel output could significantly boostdemand for Australian coking coal, potentially triggering a sharp price rally.
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