The International Copper Study Group has released preliminary data for September 2019. Preliminary data indicates that world mine production declined by about 0.4% in the first nine months of 2019, with concentrate production remaining essentially unchanged and solvent extraction-electro winning (SX-EW) declining by 1%

Reduced output in major producing countries more than offset growth in other countries. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 0.3% mainly due to lower copper head grades and some production disruptions that occurred early in the year. Indonesian output declined by 50% as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two mines to different ore zones leading to temporarily reduced output levels. After growth of 13% in 2018, aggregated production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia declined by 3% as consequence of temporary suspensions at SX-EW mines, reductions in planned production and operational constraints. Production in a number of major copper mine producing countries, including Australia, China, Mexico, Peru and the United States increased due to improved grades and a recovery from constrained output in 2018. Panama started producing copper in March 2019, with the commissioning of the Cobre de Panama mine, and was the biggest contributor to world mine production growth in the first nine months of 2019. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have increased by around 4% in North America, 1.5% in Latin America and 6% in Oceania but declined by 6.5% in Asia, 2% in Africa and 2% in Europe.

Preliminary data indicates that world refined production remained essentially unchanged in the first nine months of 2019 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning) declining by 0.4% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 1.6%. World refined production growth was constrained as a consequence of a 30% decrease in Chilean electrolytic refined output due to temporary smelter shutdowns whilst undergoing upgrades to comply with new environmental regulations. Total Chilean refined production (including Electro winning) declined by 11%, a 35% decrease in Zambian refined output due to power supply interruptions, smelter outages and temporary shutdown and the introduction on 1st January 2019 of a 5% custom duty on copper concentrate imports constraining smelter feed, a decline of 22% in India’s production which was negatively impacted by the shutdown of Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter in April 2018, reduced output in Japan, Peru, the United States and a few European countries due to smelter maintenance shutdowns. However, these reductions were offset by growth in Chinese output and by increases in countries recovering from production constraints in 2018 such as Australia, Brazil, Iran and Poland. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Asia (3.5%) and in Oceania (11%) but declined, in North America (-2.5%), in Latin America (-8%), in Africa (-9%) and in Europe (-2.5%).

Preliminary data indicates that world apparent refined usage grew by a modest 0.3% in the first nine months of 2019. Although Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 12%, Chinese apparent usage grew by around 2.8% as a consequence of higher Chinese refinery output. Among other major copper users, demand increased in the United States, India and Taiwan (China) but declined in the EU and Japan. World ex-China usage declined by around 2%

In the first nine months of 2019, the world refined copper balance, based on apparent Chinese usage (excluding unreported/bonded stocks), indicated a deficit in the market of about 390,000 tonnes. The world refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicated a market deficit of around 525,000 tonnes.

Based on the average of estimates provided by independent consultants, China’s bonded stocks are thought to have declined by about 135,000 t in the first nine months of 2019 compared to the year-end 2018 level. Bonded stocks declined by around 90,000 tonnes in the same period of 2018. As of the end of November, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totaled 365,092 tonne, an increase of 14,596 tonnes (+4%) from stocks held at the end of December 2018. Stocks were up at the LME (+58%) and SHFE (+1%) and down at COMEX (-63%). The average LME cash price for November 2019 was USD 5,859.69 per tonne, up 2% from the October average of US$ 5,742.89 per tonne. The 2019 high and low copper prices through the end of November were USD 6,572 per tonne (on 1st Mar) and USD 5,537 per tonne (on the 3rd September), respectively, and the year average was USD 5,994.35 per tonne (8% below the 2018 annual average). 有色金属展-铜材展-2020年广州国际有色金属工业（铜业）展览会 -2020 China(Guangzhou)Int’l Non-Ferrous Metal（Copper）Exhibition -Non-Ferrous Metal exhibition, 2020 Non-Ferrous Metal exhibition, Non-Ferrous Metal expo, 2020 Non-Ferrous Metal expo, Copper exhibition, Copper expo, 2020 Copper exhibition, 2020 Copper expo, China Copper exhibition, China Copper expo