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Increased integration of electric cars is a threat to traditional heat treatment volumes and types¡ªThe 18th China(Guangzhou)Int¡¯l Heat Treatment, Industrial Furnace Exhibition
11/10/2016 heat treatment expo-furnace expo |
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Increased integration of electric cars is a threat to traditional heat treatment volumes and types. The reason for this disruption is that electric vehicles do not need multi-speed transmissions. Most hybrid electric vehicles (EHV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) on the market use single speed transmissions, constant-velocity transmissions (CVT), or even no transmission, such as the direct-drive in the Volkswagen e-Bora. On the other side of the equation multi-speed transmission components used in traditional vehicles require a number of heat treatment operations such as Carburizing, Carbonitriding, Hardening, Nitriding, and Stress Relieving. For many decades, the automotive industry was one of the largest growing markets for heat treatment. Until recently, 30% to 35% of global heat treatment was performed on automotive parts including transmission components.
According to a study completed by Fitch Rating, in the next four years the electric car could be mass produced and become a major disruptive force in the heat treatment industry. The electrification of the automotive industry is not only limited to the cars but also to other industrial vehicles as well. The Indian government is working on a scheme to provide electric cars with zero down payments in an attempt to become a 100 per cent electric vehicle nation by 2030. China also introduced government policy that stipulates that 25% of all vehicles will be electric and locally built by 2020. There are about 1.2 million electric vehicles on the road today, compared to the global fleet of about one billion, and annual electric car sales are currently less than 1% of total automobile sales. Car battery prices have fallen by 73% between 2008 and today, to $268.00/kW/h. Car manufacturers predict that the price should fall to $120.00/kWh for cars to become cost competitive and that threshhold can be reached by 2020.
More than 90 million transmission sets were produced for the global automotive industry in 2015, according to a recently published report from RnR Market Research. Of this total, more than 24 million transmission sets were produced in China in 2015. The growing number of cars using multi-speed transmission will compensate for the lower number of gears used in electric car transmissions. The major change for the heat treatment industry is to utilize Low Pressure Carburizing (LPC) and Carbonitriding technology. There will also be increased automation in gear manufacturing using integrated manufacturing techniques such as the single piece flow. Lighter material, smaller transmissions saturation of cars markets and Additive Manufacturing may decrease heat treatment grow potential for overall parts volume and weight by 2022".
¡ªThe
18th China(Guangzhou)Int¡¯l Heat Treatment, Industrial Furnace Exhibition
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