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market outlook Goldman Sachs raises 2026 iron ore price forecast to $93/mt but keeps bearish-Casting Exhibition-The 26th China(Guangzhou) International Casting Products ,foundry Industry Exhibition
11/4/2025 铸件展-铸件展会-casting expo-casting exhibition |
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US-based investment banking company Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has revised its iron ore price forecast for2026 to $93/mt, citing macroeconomic support, tighter inventories, and resilient Chinese steel production,according to a report by Bloomberg
The upward revision marks a $5/mt increase from the bank''s previous projection but remains below current ironore futures.
Tighter market conditions support near-termstability
Analysts led by Aurelia Waltham wrote that the iron oremarket has “remained tighter than expected in recentmonths", supported by:
robust Chinese hot-metal output,
stable port inventories, and
yuan appreciation.
lron ore futures in Singapore traded around $106.45/mt.up 15 percent from mid-June lows, following China''snew measures to curb industrial overcapacity. Year-to-date, benchmark prices have averaged around $101/mt
China''s oversupply and global shipping surge pose risks
Despite the upward revision, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook. The bank expects iron ore prices todecline to $88/mt by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing structural oversupply risks in China''s steel market,although that is up from a previous forecast of $80/mt.
Goldman warned that:
China''s net steel exports have peaked.
domestic demand continues to weaken due to the prolonged property downturn, andthese factors will weigh on crude steel output in 2026.
On the supply side, global iron ore shipments have increased 15 percent year-on-year in the current quarter.The bank noted that this trend willikely boost port stockpiles and keep inventories elevated throughout 2026putting additional downward pressure on prices.
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