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Rumors about steel output cuts in China support futures, but fail to push up spotprices much-金属展-冶金展-2025
广州巨浪国际金属暨冶金工业展览会-巨浪展览-2025 China (Guangzhou) Int'l Metal & Metallurgy Industry Exhibition
3/3/2025 金属展-冶金展-钢铁展-steel expo-metal & metallurgy expo |
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Today, Wednesday, February 26, news has emerged about China planning to cut crude steel production in the2025-2027 period, bolstering the weak market sentiments seen early this week. Nevertheless, most marketsources have been assessing the news as just a rumor at the current stage, as no semi-oficial announcementshave even been made. As a result, there has been minimal support for local steel prices in china and exportquotations have remained relatively stable.
According to the market reports, China is going to cut its steel production by 50 milion mt in 2025, by 20 milionmt in 2026, and by 10 milion mt in 2027. The rumors also indicated that Li Qiang, a member of the StandingCommitee of the Political Bureau of the CPc Central Commitee, is going to sign and formally issue thedocument next week. in 2024, China''s output of crude steel totaled 1.00509 bilion mt, decreasing by 1.7percent or 17.38 milion mt from 2023, according to the NBS. So, the rumor about a 50 milion mt reduction thisyear, if true, points to a far more significant year-on-year drop.
Though the reports about these production curbs have been widely discussed, there has not been anyconfirmation of them even in the local Chinese media. "it is just a rumor now. l checked DeepSeek [the Chineseartificial intelligence companyl, and still no confirmed news or source for this. The market needed some news.otherwise it is too slow," a larae Chinese trader said. Another trader from China said that the recent news maybecome a reality, but details will be released later.
The abovementioned rumors have resulted in a rise today in rebar and HRC futures at the Shanghai FuturesExchange by 1.24 and 1.18 percent, respectively, compared to the previous day. However, spot prices in Chinahave posted just a minimum increase. The average rebar price in China has inched up by RMB 14/mt($1.95/mt) to RMB 3,407/mt ex-warehouse, while bilet has added just RMB 7mt ($0.98/mt) to RMB 3,120/mtex-warehouse. Moreover, the trend in the HRc market has failed to change and the local average price has lostRMB 15/mt ($2.1/mt), according to SteelOrbis'' information.
$1 = RMB 7.1732
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