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Australia expects metallurgical coal exports to -有色金属展-铜材展-2025年广州国际有色金属工业（铜业）展览会-Non-Ferrous Metals Exhibition-Copper Exhibition-The 25th China(Guangzhou) Int'l Non-Ferrous Metals (Copper) Exhibition
4/14/2025 有色金属展-铜材展-non-ferrous metals expo |
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Australia''s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to decline from A$56 bilion in 2023-24 to A$33 bilionby 2029-30, due to a decline in prices, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government''sDepartment of Industry, Science and Resources.Prices for Australian benchmark premium hard coking coal (PHCc) fell throughout the first three quarters of2024 before stabilizing in October, averaging US$244/mt for the year. The fall in prices was mostly driven byfaling demand for Australian spot cargoes. China is generally the marginal buyer on the Australian spot market,and negative profit margins at Chinese steel mills during 2024 weighed on prices. Negative sentiment hascontinued into 2025, with prices remaining below US$200/mt for most of the year so far. Australia''s metallurgicalcoal exports are expected to peak at 174 milion mt in 2027-28, as new mines come online. As a result.exporters are expected to take a small amount of market share from Chinese domestic suppliers.The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to fall from an estimated US$238/mt in 2024 toUS$198/mt in 2025.
Also, metallurgical coal exports from Australia are expected to rise from an estimated 156 milion mt in 2024-25to 163 million mt in 2025-26.
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