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Crude Steel Production Estimates for 2019-2020 China(Guangzhou)Int’l Metal & Metallurgy Exhibition-metal exhibition
1/3/2020 金属展-冶金展-钢铁展-steel expo-metal &metallurgy expo- |
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Australia’s Department or industry, innovation and Science’s Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2019 Commentary
Automotive production trended down across most countries over the second half of 2019, resulting in more stagnant steel demand towards the end of the year. The causes of slowing automotive demand include falling consumer sentiment, lack of certainty over vehicle emissions policies in many countries, and postponements of purchasing decisions amidst the expected rise in electric vehicle sales. Industrial production growth has now slipped below broader economic growth across much of the world.
European Union steel output fell in October, for the 10th successive month, as well as in Japan and South Korea. Growth is also softening in India, and appears to have halted in the US, though this may be just a temporary downturn. Growth in Vietnam is accelerating, with steel output increasing by almost a third over the past 12 months.
Chinese steel demand is more tilted towards infrastructure and construction than in most other countries, and government backing for these sectors has kept Chinese steel demand relatively strong, though margins have become squeezed. There have been signs of increasing weakness in recent months, with annual growth in China’s Fixed Asset Investment dropping to 5.2 per cent in October. This is a 20-year low, and falls short of expectations, which had been for growth of the year to October, similarly falling short of expectations. Chinese steel production eased to 2.6 million tonnes a day in October, and scheduled winter production cuts, while less severe than observed in previous years, make it unlikely that steel production will grow in any significant way over the upcoming March quarter 2020.
Steel production in China is heavily state supported, but faces significant downside risks, due to broader global uncertainty; tighter environmental regulations are also likely to play a role. The Chinese Government has announced new air quality targets, with concentrations of particles below 2.5 microns to fall by 4 per cent through the year, and heavy pollution days set to fall by 6 per cent. While substantial, these goals were revised down from earlier drafts, and may be managed in most cases without significant impact on production.
Liuzhou Steel and Chanjiang Steel are set to close facilities by 2021, and production is scheduled to fall at the Tianjin Rochcheck Steel Group, where a blast furnace plant is set to close. Several facilities are also reducing output, including in Hebei Province, where production is being reduced by 14 million tonnes, and Shanxi, where steel output is set to fall by 1.75 million tonnes.
The premium for high-grade iron ore has eased in recent months, perhaps reflecting an attempt by Chinese steel mills to reduce costs. However, production is likely to stay high, with steel output high at most facilities and winter production cuts likely to be modest.
Growth in emerging Asia is dominated by India and Vietnam, who have unveiled detailed plans to develop much larger steel industries.
Due to its size, India has become a pivotal player in global steel production over the last five years. However, Indian production faces an array of challenges which include tight margins, ample international supply, domestic economic slowdown, and global trade tensions. Near- term Indian production may also be disrupted by the expiry of 232 mining leases in March 2020.
Steel production in the EU faces some similar challenges, with potential oversupply and trade tensions leading to falling profitability. European steel production in 2019 is likely to decline by about 3 per cent. Tata Steel announced 3,000 jobs would likely be cut in the United Kingdom (and the Netherlands, as a result of the deteriorating outlook. This follows the collapse of British Steel, the second largest steelmaker in the UK, which went into liquidation in May and subsequent takeover by the Chinese-owned Jingye Group. On the upside, provisional signs are emerging that the recent decline in automotive production may be starting to reverse in parts of Europe: if this trend continues, steel production may track up again in 2020.
In Japan, the steel outlook remains relatively modest, largely due to a decline in manufacturing growth during 2019. However, recent stimulus announcements may provide some upside in 2020. Steel production in the US has also lost momentum in recent months, reflecting the impact of lower global automotive production and trade tensions. However, most US steelmakers remain profitable and more resilient than those in Europe.
Steel production around the world will likely continue to track closely with global industrial production and automotive construction, making these measures crucial to the fortunes of global steelmakers. Steelmakers in most countries are ending 2019 with lower profits, tighter margins and a more negative production trend than at the start of the year
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