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IREPAS: Longs steel outlook for next quarter unpromising and challenging-紧固件展-2024第二十四届广州国际紧固件及设备展览会-巨浪展览-The 24th China(Guangzhou)Int’l Fastener & Equipment Exhibition
12/11/2023 紧固件展-紧固件采购会-国际紧固件展-fastener expo |
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While the global steel market is generally in the pre-holiday period, some rise in demand has been observed.supported mainly by the unexpected rises in raw material prices and by energy price hikes. Buyers have mainlyaccepted the price rises on the steel side, at least gradually, seeing no other alternative. However, it is not yet clearwhether the demand and buying activity wil continue. Competition in the global steel market remains quite high and isstill more regionalized.
in particular, in the raw materials segment, scrap prices exceeding $400/mt CFR Turkey and rising even further hasbeen rather unexpected, given the relatively unfavorable market for longs. The uptrend was due, on the one side, to urkish mills'' need to restock for January, while the supply of scrap in the market was limited. In addition, the situationin the bilet market, where there had been a shortage of suitable allocation, has also increased Turkey''s demand forscrap. As a result, since the uptrend is not driven by a beter finished steel market situation, there are doubts regardingits sustainability
China remains an active exporter and its rather large export allocation still puts a ceiling on how hioh prices in manvother markets can go. In fact, the lack of a further increase in China''s export volumes is considered a positive signnow, but supply is stil plentifu. Recently, the Chinese government announced a large stimulus package which wilsupport domestic demand and also limit any increase in steel exports from the country.
The US market is expected to reach 90 million net tons crude steel production in 2023, slightly less than in 2022. Thesteel market is generally steady but housing and commercial construction is stl down due to high interest rates. Pricesare going up but the trend may not be sustainable due to adverse winter conditions and the upcoming holidays. In themeantime, while downstream margins are quite high in the US, they are close to non-existent in the EU. SomeEuropean benders have started closing down in order to reduce capacity, given the generally negative outlook
Prices in Europe have mainly stopped falling and there are some attempts to increase the workable levels for longsamid slightly better buying and the upcoming holiday. n the import segment, there has been some interest in ex-Asiawire rod, while Turkey may also have a chance to fill the gaps if there is demand for cargoes with short lead times. Inthe meantime, reduction of CO2 emissions is still a widely discussed issue in the European region.The general IREPAS outlook for the next quarter is unpromising and mainly challenging for most of the reaions. exceptthe Us.
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