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If China cuts rare earth supplies, what can the US do?-The 20th China (Guangzhou)Int’l Fastener & Equipment Exhibition
6/1/2019  紧固件展-紧固件采购会-国际紧固件展-fastener expo
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    Asia Times reported that China has once again hinted strongly that it may retaliate against the United States in the latest trade war round by cutting off US supplies of rare earth products. US and its top Asian allies are totally dependent on China for rare earth metals and products, a dangerous situation impacting both national security and competitiveness, even halting the emerging battery-powered car market that depends on rare earth materials. China produces about 97% of rare earth ore, 97% of rare earth oxides, 89% of rare earth alloys, 75% of neodymium iron boron magnets (NdFeB) and 60% of samarium cobalt magnets (SmCo). The United States almost entirely lacks the refining, fabricating, metal-making, alloying and magnet manufacturing capacity to process rare earths and is nearly completely dependent on China.

Rare earth metals are used in commercial and defense applications. For example, Virginian-class nuclear-powered submarines each use 9,200 pounds of rare earth metals, while Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers require about 5,200 lbs of rare earth metals, there are 66 destroyers in service and 14 either under construction or on order. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighters each require 920 lbs of rare earth metals, 380 have been built so far and the total buy for the US alone is 2,663 aircraft with Japan now about to order an additional 105 F-35s. Overall, the US defense market for rare earth materials is less than 5% of domestic consumption. But the defense market needs are for very high leverage applications such as fin actuators in missile guidance and control systems, disk drive motors installed in aircraft, tanks, missile systems and command and control centers, lasers for enemy mine detection, interrogators, underwater mines and counter-measures, satellite communications, radar and sonar on submarines and surface ships and optical equipment. 

While there are some government-supported cooperative research projects with industry, these are mostly small scale. In spite of the rising importance of rare earth elements for national security, the US Defense Department has not sought to safeguard US supplies, either by stockpiling materials or partnering with industry to develop rare earth mining and refining outside China. This is rather odd, because when it came to semiconductors and the need for certain products even products coming from allied and friendly sources the DOD invested a bundle. Perhaps the most famous investment was in supporting very high-speed chip development and manufacturing in a program called VHSIC (Very High Speed Integrated Circuit).

But the mid-term is full of more opportunities for the United States and the Trump administration has a chance to set the stage. The best chance is to partner with Japan. Japan has discovered huge deposits of rare earth materials at Minamitori Island (Minami-Tori-shima), about 1,150 miles (1,850 km) southeast of Tokyo. The estimate of the Minamitori deposits indicates that there is enough yttrium to meet the global demand for 780 years, dysprosium for 730 years, europium for 620 years and terbium for 420 years. US policymakers could seek a partnership with Japan in commercializing Minamitori’s rare earth resources and arranging assured supplies for defense and vital commercial applications. 

In short, there is a short-term and mid-term opportunity to end US dependence on China and assure US national security requirements for rare earth materials. 紧固件展-2019第二十届广州国际紧固件及设备展览会-巨浪展览 -The 20th China (Guangzhou)Intl Fastener & Equipment Exhibition - Fastener exhibition,2019 Fastener exhibition, China Fastener exhibition, Guangzhou Fastener exhibition, 2019 Fastener expo, China Fastener expo, Guangzhou Fastener expo
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